The world has been closely watching the evolving relationship between Taiwan and China, and the growing tension feels like a chess game where each move is calculated and fraught with potential global repercussions.
Taiwan, a vibrant democracy and economic powerhouse, stands at the crossroads of geopolitical power plays. For Beijing, Taiwan is a symbol of unfinished business—an integral part of its national identity that has yet to be reclaimed.
The idea of unification is a constant drumbeat in Xi Jinping's (習近平) speeches, who portrays Taiwan as a “breakaway province” in need of reintegration. But is this narrative merely a distraction from China’s internal woes?
In recent years, Xi has had to grapple with a multitude of crises. The Chinese economy, once a symbol of unstoppable growth, now teeters on the edge of stagnation. A shrinking population and a collapsing real estate market—long the backbone of China’s economic rise—create tremors that cannot be ignored.
For Xi, Taiwan may offer an escape route, a way to shift attention from his domestic troubles while consolidating power through a show of force on the international stage. In this narrative, Taiwan becomes more than just a geopolitical prize; it becomes a potential exit strategy from his political predicaments.
For Beijing, Taiwan is a tantalizing goal due to its key role in the global semiconductor industry. Taiwan’s technological infrastructure, particularly in chipmaking, makes it a critical player in the world’s tech ecosystem.
Securing control of Taiwan would provide China with an unprecedented advantage in the global technology race. This desire for dominance mirrors the behavior of another global actor—Russia—whose invasion of Ukraine shattered the norms of international conduct. Like Russia, China seeks to challenge democratic values while expanding its sphere of influence, though its tactics are more subtle, at least for now.
The so-called “Anaconda Strategy” has been China’s preferred method to tighten its grip around Taiwan. Named for the way an anaconda constricts its prey, Beijing’s approach involves slowly but surely isolating Taiwan, making it increasingly difficult for the nation to breathe economically and diplomatically. The term, used by Admiral Tang Hua, head of Taiwan’s military fleet, is a powerful metaphor that encapsulates Beijing’s slow but relentless pressure on Taiwan.
Taking Taiwan’s breath away is what China wants to do. Rather than opting for an all-out military invasion, China uses psychological and strategic pressure. Military drills near Taiwan’s waters, diplomatic isolation, and economic coercion are all part of the constriction.
Xi understands that the West is currently distracted, with its attention divided between the ongoing crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. This creates a window of opportunity for China to tighten the squeeze on Taiwan without drawing immediate retaliation.
Taipei, while fully aware of the growing threat, maintains a cautious approach. The Taiwanese government is careful not to overly alarm its population, balancing the need to stay vigilant without instilling a sense of panic.
Yet, beneath this calm surface, the pressure is mounting. Chinese naval and air incursions have multiplied, bringing Beijing’s military presence closer to Taiwanese shores.
The frequency and intensity of these operations are not lost on the international community, but the global response remains tepid, caught between the reluctance to escalate tensions and the reality of China’s strategic importance.
Meanwhile, the world’s attention is torn. The United States, traditionally Taiwan’s most staunch defender, is stretched thin. Washington’s focus on supporting Ukraine and dealing with the turmoil in the Middle East has left little room for addressing the increasingly volatile situation in the Taiwan Strait. In Europe, attention is even more fragmented, with little diplomatic or military focus on the Indo-Pacific region.
However, one country remains acutely aware of the stakes—Japan. Tokyo has been bolstering its defenses, wary of the potential fallout should China make a move on Taiwan. For Japan, Taiwan’s fate is inextricably linked to its own security, and it has taken measured steps to ensure it is prepared for any escalation.
In this global chessboard, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran form an unsettling quartet of authoritarian regimes, each seeking to shift the balance of power in their favor. Their recent high-level meetings hint at a broader alignment, where Taiwan is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. While the world debates Taiwan’s future, these powers work quietly behind the scenes, coordinating strategies that could reshape the international order.
The reality is that Taiwan’s fate is not solely in the hands of its people or even the Chinese government. It rests on a broader, interconnected set of global dynamics, where the actions in one region can trigger responses halfway across the world.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has already provided a chilling preview of what might happen if China chooses to act decisively on Taiwan. A military invasion might not be Beijing’s first move, but the isolation of Taiwan could be just as effective in bending Taiwan to its will.
As Taiwan navigates its precarious position, it remains a beacon of democracy in an increasingly authoritarian region. The challenge for the international community is clear: will they stand by as Taiwan is slowly suffocated, or will they recognize the importance of this country not just for regional stability, but for the very principles of democracy and self-determination?
Taiwan knows well that only through its diplomatic maneuvers and with international recognition, may prevent any attacking or isolating strategies from China. Washington has some sort of fixation that Xi could potentially attack Taiwan in 2027.
Meanwhile, Taiwan and its diplomatic allies are closely working together to promote its values in international organizations, such as the UN. The US, Europe, and Japan are trying to dissuade China’s imperialist ambitions, with many specific reforms in favor of Taiwan’s inclusion in international bodies.
Taiwan’s future is still uncertain, but one thing is clear: the country is more than just a pawn in a geopolitical game. It represents the hope of a democratic future in a world increasingly dominated by authoritarian regimes. Whether it can escape the tightening grip of Beijing’s anaconda strategy remains to be seen, but the stakes have never been higher.
