TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Experts indicated that China’s live-fire drill on Tuesday (Oct. 22) was likely a routine exercise for local garrisons, though the surrounding media coverage may serve as a tactic in its cognitive warfare against Taiwan.
The US 7th Fleet announced that its Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, USS Higgins, and the Royal Canadian Navy’s Halifax-class frigate, HMCS Vancouver, conducted a routine transit through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday. The following day, the Pingtan Maritime Safety Administration issued navigation warnings for areas near Niushan Island, the closest Chinese territory to Taiwan, in preparation for the live-fire drill, per CNA.
The Institute for National Defense and Security Research's Division of Chinese Politics, Military, and Warfighting Concepts Associate Research Fellow Professor Shu Hsiao-huang (舒孝煌) noted that the drill primarily involved local artillery and naval units, without participation from the People's Liberation Army’s (PLA) rocket forces. He suggested that the PLA had reframed this routine exercise as a response to recent international developments, particularly the transit of the US and Canadian warships.
Shu emphasized that the drill's location, rather than its nature, raised concerns, reiterating the routine aspect of the live-fire exercise. He speculated that if the PLA attempted to organize a larger-scale drill in reaction to the warship transits, it would burden their armed forces and risk further straining relations with neighboring countries.
Shu predicted that the PLA would continue to conduct smaller exercises in response to similar incidents.
Researcher at Tamkang University’s Center for Advanced Technology Yang Tai-yuan (楊太源) supported Shu’s assessment, arguing that the exercise was routine since China typically does not mobilize troops during a leader’s visit to the area for fear of security implications. With Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) visiting Fujian Province, Yang suggested the drill was likely conducted by the PLA artillery battalion stationed in Pingtan County.
He compared this live-fire drill to those carried out by Taiwan’s garrisons on islands such as Kinmen and Matsu, asserting that it was mischaracterized as part of the military exercises around Taiwan on Oct. 14 due to China’s cognitive warfare tactics. Yang noted that with the arrival of the winter monsoon, worsening maritime conditions would limit the PLA's capacity to deploy troops on a large scale in the region.
Yang concluded that while the PLA garrison around the Taiwan Strait would remain at normal levels, China could still exert pressure on Taiwan through economic and diplomatic means.