As the US gears up for the upcoming election the stakes are particularly high for Taiwan and Beijing, while the results could alter the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region.
What is more intriguing is the unpredictability Trump represents. What could a Donald Trump victory mean for China and Taiwan?
His erratic approach has left Beijing puzzled, unable to anticipate his next moves. Meanwhile, the situation around Taiwan continues to evolve, with heightened military activity and strategic posturing.
Taiwan remains a focal point of contention, caught between Xi Jinping's (習近平) aspirations and support from the West.
After China’s Joint Sword 2024B military drills around Taiwan, the US and Canada responded by sending two warships through the Taiwan Strait. The passage of the US destroyer USS Higgins and the Canadian frigate HMCS Vancouver was a clear signal to Beijing — a reminder that Western powers are not sitting by idly.
Beijing’s response was predictable. Chinese naval and air forces were mobilized, closely monitoring the warships during their passage, while issuing strong condemnations. According to Chinese military officials, these actions “undermined peace and stability” in the region, and they pledged to safeguard China’s sovereignty.
However, this posturing only adds to the growing tension in the area, with Taiwan caught in the middle, constantly on alert for the next move.
Taipei watches these developments with a mix of caution and resolve. Xi has made no secret of his ambitions regarding Taiwan, and his recent remarks about preparing for war were particularly alarming. During a People’s Liberation Army missile brigade visit, Xi emphasized the need for military readiness and strategic deterrence, urging soldiers to enhance their warfighting capabilities.
This rhetoric fits seamlessly into China’s broader strategy of exerting pressure on Taiwan, showcasing both military might and a readiness to act if deemed necessary.
Meanwhile, Trump’s rhetoric has injected unpredictability into the equation. On the campaign trail, the former president has repeatedly claimed that China would not dare to provoke him if he returned to power.
According to Trump, Xi respects him precisely because he is unpredictable. Trump even went so far as to suggest that he would not need to use military force to prevent a Chinese blockade of Taiwan. Instead, his weapon of choice would be massive tariffs, a blunt economic tool he believes would keep China in check.
For Beijing, this is an unsettling prospect. Trump’s unpredictability is a wild card that Xi finds difficult to counter.
Unlike the more conventional diplomatic approaches seen under the current administration, Trump’s brash style and threats of economic penalties create an atmosphere of uncertainty. Xi may know how to deal with traditional power plays, but handling a leader who prides himself on being “crazy” is a different matter entirely.
The region around Taiwan remains tense. China has not wavered in its claims over Taiwan, and its military presence is a constant reminder of its intent. The Western response, while significant, is still measured.
Taiwan continues to prepare, aware that its security depends on both its own defense capabilities and the broader support of the international community.
As the election draws near, one thing is clear: the relationship between the US, Taiwan, and China will be influenced not only by military strategies but by the unpredictable nature of US politics. For now, Beijing is left guessing, uncertain about how to navigate the possibilities that lie ahead.
Meanwhile, for Taiwan, the future remains perilous, a delicate balance of strength and diplomacy in a region that could easily tip into conflict.
