TAIPEI (Taiwan News) —  A National Development Council (NDC) report warned Taiwan’s declining birth rate could lead the population to drop to 15 million by 2070.

The biggest impact from the loss of eight million people will be on the labor market. According to experts, people born between 1998 and 2098 may need to work into their 80s, per UDN.

The NDC’s "Population Estimates for Taiwan (2024 to 2070)" said there is no change in when Taiwan is expected to become a "super-aged society," which is currently forecast for 2025. This designation means those over 65 account for more than 20% of a country's population.

The NDC said Taiwan's population will continue to age with the percentage of those over 65 reaching 46.5% in 2070. During the same period, the median age will increase from 45.1 years old to 62.4 years old.

Taiwan is following a similar path to other “super-aged societies.” For example, Japan reached this status in 2005, Germany in 2007, and France in 2018. As for other countries that have yet to reach this designation, South Korea and Canada are expected to enter next year, and the U.K. is expected to follow in 2028, the US in 2029, Australia in 2031, China in 2032, and Singapore in 2037.

The report shows Taiwan’s working-age population aged 15 to 64 will account for less than two-thirds of the total population in 2028, which means that a ”demographic dividend” where youth support the elderly population will potentially disappear in 2028.

Cheng Chih-yu (成之約), a professor at the Graduate Institute of Labor Research, National Chengchi University, said Taiwan is experiencing a sluggish birth rate on par with South Korea. As the labor market population shrinks and ages, Cheng said many should expect the previous life model of “study, work, retirement” to be a thing of the past, as many should be prepared for a lifetime of work.

However, Cheng said the labor force participation rate of middle-aged and elderly people in Taiwan has been sluggish, with those over 65 accounting for less than 10% of the workforce. Cheng said that in the future, seniors in the labor market may not only be motivated by earning money to support their family but also by other factors such as simply passing time or “active aging,” which can slow down the degradation of physical functions.

In response to changes in the demographic structure, Cheng said Taiwan has altered immigration policies, such as marriage policies and recruiting skilled workers similar to Japan and Canada. Cheng said emphasizing laborers are shortsighted as they only stay for a short-term transitional period.

”It may be necessary to plan immigration policies to attract more permanent residents. We should also consider the possibility of bringing families in the future, providing sufficient incentives to increase the willingness of foreigners and immigrants to live long-term,” said Cheng.

Cheng also suggested the government continue proposing policies that encourage people to have children. In an era of significant labor shortages, industries should be encouraged to integrate automation, robots, and AI applications to mitigate the effects of a constrained labor market.