TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – The economy will grow 4.03% this year and 3.15% in 2025, but the return of Donald Trump to power in the United States could influence Taiwan’s trade performance, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) said Thursday (Nov. 7).

The economies in Europe, Japan, and emerging markets were all set to perform well next year, helping the prospects for Taiwan’s exports, but Trump's moving back into the White House was bound to create some doubt, the Liberty Times reported. TIER said Taiwan’s internal demand was stable, while overseas demand for information and communication products was strong, helping exports to continue on a growth path.

However, other products suffered from overproduction in China and the depreciation of the yen, recording a less perfect performance during the first half of 2024. The situation only improved during the third quarter, with exports and domestic investment growing, leading to an overall expected growth figure of more than 4% for 2024.

While the US and China faced uncertainty next year, Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa, and Latin America were all likely to show improvements, favoring the growth of Taiwan’s exports, according to TIER economists.

For the time being, unknown factors included measures by the new Trump administration, TIER said. The US might levy higher tariffs on major trading partners and China, scrap green subsidies and anti-inflation measures, revive the petrochemical sector, and demand allies spend more on defense, with the measures likely to impact Taiwan.