Historian Stephen Wertheim last month wrote a guest essay for the New York Times suggesting how the next US president can “put America first, for real,” where he focused on foreign policy, particularly concerning Russia and China.  

Wertheim called for a more “careful” approach with China. He prescribed Washington “fortify” the “one China” policy by not asserting that Taiwan’s future is for the Taiwanese to decide and to offer “stepped-up but conditional aid.” These prescriptions are based on three fundamentally flawed assumptions about Taiwan and China. 

First is the assumption that Beijing has “long proved” willing to tolerate Taiwan’s self-rule so long as Taipei does not “declare independence” and the US acknowledges the position that Taiwan is part of China. China was perhaps willing to tolerate Taiwan’s self-rule when it lacked the means to challenge the status quo. But as a historian, Wertheim surely remembers that former Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai (周恩來) only begrudgingly agreed to compromise on Taiwan to normalize diplomatic relations with the US. 

According to former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平), tolerating these compromises with the US was only a strategy to “bide its time.” China has always viewed its tolerance as temporary. 

That time seems to have come under the leadership of Xi Jinping (習近平). The People’s Liberation Army has steadily ratcheted up tensions around Taiwan. In 2021, the PLA flew 972 aircraft within Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, which more than doubled to 2,002 as of September. 

There is Beijing’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea and its “wolf warrior diplomacy” that amounts to throwing tantrums at any slight perceived offense. China has not “proved” willing to tolerate Taiwan as much as it has proved it’s tired of waiting. 

The second assumption is that the US is responsible for “foreclosing” the possibility of an eventual annexation of Taiwan by China. The seemingly narrow window for peaceful annexation is not a result of American meddling, but rather the simple fact that Taiwanese do not want to be ruled by the Chinese Communist Party. 

China is always more than welcome to offer attractive options to persuade the Taiwanese to accept Beijing's rule. Decades ago, China proposed the “One Country Two Systems” scheme for Taiwan to retain a high degree of autonomy as part of China. Beijing insists One Country Two Systems is the only acceptable outcome for Taiwan other than an invasion. However, the quick dismantling of Hong Kong’s autonomy under One Country Two Systems since 2019 showed Taiwan how China truly works. 

The US has no standing in foreclosing Taiwan to willingly become part of China. Therefore, when commentators suggest the US should not “foreclose” the possibility of peaceful unification, what they really mean is for the US to give China hope that coercing Taiwan into submission without firing a single shot is a viable path. 

The final fundamental flaw is assuming the relationship with China can be reset by some grand bargain. If the US would just ease the pressure on China and allow Beijing to fulfill its core interests (such as Taiwan), China will reciprocate.  

However, China does not compete with the US as a reaction to US pressure. China competes with the US because of nationalism, which is the source of political legitimacy for the Chinese Communist Party. Chinese nationalism is fueled by a perceived “birthright” to be at the center of the world and that ending US supremacy itself is a core interest. 

Therefore, a grand bargain with China will not result in the friendly reciprocation its advocates hope for. Rather, it will be viewed as another sign that US power is waning, which will embolden China to simply ask for more concessions down the road. 

This author agrees with the general advice to carefully approach US-China relations. The relationship must be managed with principle, precision, and nuance. Grandstanding is not conducive to a well-managed relationship with China, but neither are naive, unilateral gestures of goodwill that Wertheim suggested. 

The US can only provide security and prosperity for Americans when the world is secure and prosperous. But the world is not made safer simply by the mere absence of ongoing military conflict. As a historian, Wertheim surely appreciates that the compromises we make to avoid war today often lead to more devastating ones later. 

America can only be first when it is able to make the principles of democracy and the rule of law credibly secure. And more so than in any other time in history, that project is a global endeavor, including Taiwan.

Chieh-Ting Yeh is a venture investor in Silicon Valley, a director of US Taiwan Watch think tank, and co-founder and editor-in-chief of Taiwan-focused Ketagalan Media.