TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — International Data Corporation predicted AI and high-performance computing will drive the global semiconductor market up 15% next year.
In a report on Thursday, IDC said TSMC will be a major beneficiary of semiconductor growth, dominating the foundry business with market share growing from 64% in 2024 to 66% in 2025. TSMC is expected to outpace competitors like Samsung and Intel in market share and technology.
According to IDC, AI is driving demand for advanced nodes and silicon solutions that handle large datasets to support AI applications. Advanced nodes require 3nm and the latest 2nm process which TSMC is currently building in Taiwan.
IDC predicts that all three major wafer manufacturing plants—TSMC, Samsung, and Intel—will mass-produce the 2nm process next year. Samsung is developing a 2nm process in Hwaseong, Korea, while Intel is focusing its new strategy to attract external foundry customers.
IDC said that next year will be critical for 2nm technology as the market will pay attention to each factory's yield, delivery speed, and production expansion.
As for traditional wafer manufacturing, IDC expects capacity to increase by 7% in 2025, of which advanced process capacity will increase by 12%. IDC also predicted that the average capacity utilization rate will remain above 90%.
The average capacity utilization rate of 8-inch fabs is expected to increase from 70% in 2024 to 75% in 2025. The average capacity utilization rate of the 12-inch mature process will also increase to more than 76% in 2025.
Due to geopolitics, IDC predicts the global packaging and testing industry ecology will be reorganized. Taiwan manufacturers are expected to expand into high-end fields such as AI and GPUs.
As for advanced packaging, customer demand, such as for NVIDIA and cloud service providers, will double TSMC's CoWoS production capacity from 330,000 pieces this year to 660,000 in 2025.