TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Washington DC-based think tank report said Chinese missile attacks on air bases in the Indo-Pacific could prevent US aircraft from operating effectively during a conflict over Taiwan.
The Stimson Center report, published this month, highlighted China’s modern missile arsenal, capable of targeting runways critical for US sortie generation. Researchers noted that US bases across the First Island Chain, from Indonesia to Japan, are within range of thousands of Chinese missiles.
“The implications for deterrence are worrisome,” the report stated. “Given that achieving air superiority is critical to the PLA’s strategy to achieve victory, especially in a Taiwan scenario.” Researchers said Chinese missiles could close US airfields in Japan, Guam, and the Pacific Islands in the first days or weeks of a conflict and disrupt US combat operations for much longer by denying the use of runways required for crucial mid-air refueling operations.
The report criticized current US military planning, which relies on dispersed force postures and advanced technology to maintain air superiority. “Analysts seem to forget the critical enabling role of tankers: those short-legged fighters cannot cover the distance to most targets in the Taiwan Strait or patrol the airspace for long over the South and East China Seas without tanker refueling operations,” it said.
To counter this threat, researchers urged the US Air Force to adopt new operational capabilities for employing airpower early in a conflict. The report emphasized allied support as crucial, recommending the US to strengthen partnerships to ensure friendly nations will open their airfields for US use.
To buy time in the early stages of a conflict, the report suggested US allies take on a frontline air defense role. “The cornerstone of this new approach should be allies and partners armed and capable of fighting a tough delaying action without requiring the immediate support of massive amounts of American airpower at the outset of hostilities,” it said.
The report called on the US to help its allies acquire air-denial capabilities, prioritizing the co-development and co-production of drones and missiles. “Many allies and partners still prioritize prestige weapons systems, like Taiwan’s recent purchase of more advanced F-16 fighters,” it noted. Researchers argued that Taiwan and Japan should focus instead on cost-effective air-denial systems, increasing defense spending and drone warfare training.
The second recommendation was for the US Air Force to develop an “inside air force,” built around inexpensive, mobile, and runway-independent platforms. This would enable air denial operations within the First Island Chain despite repeated missile attacks.
“If the US Air Force wishes to fulfill its promise of ‘airpower anytime, anywhere,’ it needs to develop uncrewed and autonomous systems,” the report said. It emphasized that runway-independent drones, capable of operating at various ranges, would be more effective than traditional air-superiority fighters in a Taiwan scenario.
Third, the report stressed the importance of logistics and sustainment. Since China’s missile arsenal could deny access to US airfields, prepositioning fuel, weapons, and equipment in Japan, Guam, and other Pacific locations is essential for maintaining operational capability.
Researchers concluded that US deterrence depends on convincing Beijing it can sustain air operations despite missile attacks on runways and supply lines.
“Policymakers should be under no illusions about whether US air bases will come under attack: They will, and the human and material costs will be high,” the report stated. “American political and military leaders—as well as the American public—should ask themselves carefully when —and for which national security interests—the country should be prepared to pay the heavy price in lives and equipment.”
