TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — US President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy has unsettled many in Taiwan, who fear it may inadvertently encourage Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s (習近平) ambitions to take control of Taiwan.
The Washington Post on Tuesday reported that Trump's approach to Greenland, Gaza, and Ukraine has alarmed many in Taiwan, who worry that it could encourage Xi to push forward with annexation plans. Some are concerned that Trump and Xi could leverage Taiwan as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations.
Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told the newspaper, “Trump’s rhetoric is doing China’s work for it in Taiwan.” Hass pointed out that every time Trump issues statements that weaken the convention that national boundaries should not be altered by force or coercion, "propagandists in Beijing likely are giving each other high-fives.”
Yen Wei-ting (顏維婷), an assistant research fellow at the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica, was cited by the newspaper as raising concerns. Yen asked if the US threatens other countries with military force, "Then what’s the moral ground on which we can say China cannot invade Taiwan?”
The Washington Post said that Trump’s approach brings new uncertainties. While he has criticized Taiwan for insufficient defense spending and for “stealing” US chip business, there are also reasons for Taiwan to remain optimistic.
Trump has appointed several China hawks who strongly support Taiwan, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz. Rubio has spoken favorably about Taiwan, and just last week, the State Department removed the words “we do not support Taiwan independence" from its website.
Graham Allison, a former US defense official with close contacts in Beijing, noted that both Trump and Xi appear willing to sit at the negotiating table and “do business,” which could have consequences for Taiwan.
Given recent developments in Ukraine, a similar geopolitical power keg, the prospect of a major Taiwan-related “grand bargain” looms. Allison warned, “I see no evidence whatever that (Trump) believes the US has any vital interest in Taiwan.”
This week, the Trump administration began talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine but excluded Ukrainian officials. Many see this as a troubling sign for Taiwan.
Sun Yun (孫韻), director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, told the Washington Post that Beijing would view this as a US “sellout” of Ukraine.
Sun said the talks over Ukraine reinforce the belief by Beijing that if a major power decides to invade a smaller country, “it eventually can and will get away with it.”
The newspaper remarked that the Trump administration prioritizes interests over values. It observed that President Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) administration has already adjusted its approach, working to convince Trump that Taiwan’s interests match those of the US.
Last week, Lai outlined a national strategy addressing Taiwan's trade surplus with the US, promoting Taiwan tech firm investment in the US, and ramping up purchases of US-made weapons. The article cited an unnamed Taiwanese official familiar with the discussions as describing this strategy as a “gift basket” for Trump.
