TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — In the wake of US President Donald Trump’s push to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict directly with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, many across the globe are expressing uncertainty about what such negotiations will mean for Taiwan.
On Thursday, Trump referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a “dictator” shortly after news broke that Ukraine would be excluded from US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia. The remarks prompted renewed fears that the US commitment to Taiwan could change on the president’s whim.
Although Taiwanese officials insist that US-Taiwan bilateral relations remain robust, Trump’s recent rhetoric has cast uncertainty across the Indo-Pacific.
As outlined in The Guardian, Trump’s floating payment for Taiwan’s protection and demands to move advanced semiconductor manufacturing to the US from Taiwan have rattled analysts who say his approach to foreign diplomacy undermines long-term precedents.
In public remarks on Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron said that Trump’s approach to resolving the Ukraine conflict could embolden Chinese aggression toward Taiwan. Macron will speak with Trump before the negotiations and reportedly advise him not to show weakness toward Putin because China will be watching.
There have been some positive signs from the US administration, such as the State Department deleting language in opposition to Taiwan independence from its fact sheet on Taiwan. This week, Taiwan’s top national security official, Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) also touted the strength of bilateral relations, noting many friends of Taiwan have been appointed to work in the new administration.
Despite these encouraging signs, there is concern that in the event of a Taiwan Strait crisis, Taiwan’s allies in the administration may not be able to influence the US president.
Likewise, news of his direct negotiations with Putin will invite speculation that he might rather deal with Xi Jinping (習近平) on the issue of Taiwan, and forego discussion with leadership in Taipei.
Since Trump’s inauguration, Taiwanese officials have consistently echoed calls to increase spending on defense. With Trump’s perceived snub to the Ukrainian war effort this week, Taiwanese officials are doubling down on efforts to bolster the country’s defensive capabilities, per Nikkei.
However, President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) faces an additional complicating factor as the opposition-led Legislative Yuan seems intent on slashing critical defense spending by up to 28%. Ongoing political turmoil between the DPP-led executive branch and the KMT-controlled legislature threatens to upend the political landscape with a wave of recall campaigns.
