TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A poll released Monday showed the public had mixed opinions about ongoing legislative recall initiatives.

The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation Poll surveyed 1,080 people between April 7-10 to assess their support for the first-phase recall of 47 legislators, including 35 from the KMT and 12 from the DPP.

The survey asked the public if they supported DPP caucus leader Ker Chien-ming’s (柯建銘) call for a mass recall of all 41 KMT legislators. The poll found that 20.1% strongly agreed, 13.7% somewhat agreed, 22.2% did not quite agree, 37.1% did not agree at all, 5.2% had no opinion, and 1.7% did not know or refused to answer.

This finding conveys two important messages: public opinion in Taiwan does not support a "mass recall," and the number of supporters of a mass recall accounts for more than one-third of respondents. The survey found that the public's attitude toward the mass recall has not changed much in the past month as the number of supporters increased by 1.2 percentage points, and the number who disagreed increased by 1.4 percentage points.

This shows that large-scale mobilizations begun in mid-to-late March by the DPP have had little effect. Even more people now oppose the general recall of KMT legislators.

Further analysis showed that different age groups overwhelmingly oppose a "mass recall." Specifically, among those aged 20-24, 34% agree and 64% disagree; among those aged 25-34, 29% agree and 64% disagree; among those aged 35-44, 28% agree and 67% disagree; among those aged 45-54, 34% agree and 60% disagree; among those aged 55-64, 33% agree and 60% disagree; and among those aged 65 and above, 42% agree and 49% disagree.

In terms of party supporters and their tendencies, 72% of DPP supporters are in favor, while 22% are against; 1.7% of KMT supporters are in favor, while 95% are against; 3.7% of Taiwan People's Party supporters are in favor, while 95% are against, and 17% of neutral voters are in favor, while 71% are against.

From the perspective of the six major cities, each region seems to be unified in opposition to a mass recall of KMT legislators. Specifically, in Taipei, 25% agree and 70% disagree; in New Taipei, 33% agree and 62% disagree; in Taoyuan, 42% agree and 50% disagree; and in Taichung, 29% agree and 64% disagree.

Significant support makes second-stage likely

A follow-up poll conducted during the same period (April 7-10), asked the public whether it was likely to participate in the second stage of the recall petition, which, to be successful, requires at least 10% of voters in the constituency to sign a petition.

The results showed that 24.1% were very likely, 15.5% were somewhat likely, 20.1% were unlikely, 36.4% were not at all likely, 3% had no opinion, and 0.9% did not know. In other words, 40% are likely to participate in the second-stage recall petition, while 57% are unlikely.

This reveals that the majority of citizens do not expect to participate in a second-stage legislative recall petition. However, the number that would participate is quite enthusiastic, increasing the chances of passing second-stage recall.

However, compared to the previous month, the public's enthusiasm to participate in the second-stage recall petition has shown a decline. Specifically, the number of people who might participate in the second-stage petition dropped by three percentage points, while the number of people who were unlikely to participate in the petition increased by a similar figure.

Further analysis shows that for those aged 25-34, 39% said it was possible to support the recall campaign and 55% said it was impossible; for those aged 35-44, 34% said it was possible and 64% impossible; for those aged 45-54, 36% said it was possible and 60% impossible; for those aged 55-64, 41% said it was possible and 56% impossible; and for those aged 65 and above, 45% said it was possible and 49% impossible.

Analyzed according to party, among DPP supporters, 74%, are likely to support and 23% are unlikely; for KMT supporters, 12% are likely to support and 84% are unlikely; for Taiwan People's Party supporters, 16% are likely to support and 83% are unlikely; and for neutral voters, 19% are likely to support and 74% are unlikely.