TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A US intelligence report says China may try to seize Taiwan’s outlying islands to pressure Taipei and test Washington.
The US Defense Intelligence Agency, DIA, released its Worldwide Threat Assessment earlier this month, per The Independent. It identifies Beijing’s possible attempt to seize outlying islands such as Kinmen, Matsu, Dongsha, Taiping Island, or Penghu as one of its potential military options short of an all-out invasion of Taiwan.
While the DIA report does not anticipate a full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan this year, it warns that the PLA may ramp up its activities around Taiwan’s offshore territories, potentially advancing from maneuvers to seizure operations. The report says:
“China possesses a variety of military options to coerce Taiwan, including increasing the frequency and scope of China’s military presence operations, air and maritime blockades, seizure of Taiwan’s smaller outlying islands, joint firepower strikes, and a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan."
It also notes:
“China appears willing to defer seizing Taiwan by force as long as it calculates unification ultimately can be negotiated, the costs of forcing unification continue to outweigh the benefits, and its stated redlines have not been crossed by Taiwan or its partners and allies.”
The report warns that Beijing is likely to continue using “diplomatic, information, military, and economic pressure” to coerce Taiwan as part of its long-term unification strategy. This pressure campaign is meant to discourage Taiwan from taking steps toward independence.
The DIA warns that China will likely seek to test Washington’s resolve to defend Taiwan. Despite no formal ties, the US is expected to respond to any Chinese attack on Taiwan, with Guam serving as the primary staging ground for military operations.
Previous reports by conflict-monitoring groups have already identified Kinmen and Matsu as the most vulnerable parts of Taiwan’s territory, per The Independent. It pointed out that across the Taiwan Strait, the Kinmen and Matsu islands lie more than 160 km from Taiwan's main island but sit just off the coast of China.
The Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War issued an assessment last year warning that Beijing’s efforts to assert control over Kinmen and Matsu combine economic incentives, nonviolent coercion, legal warfare, information warfare, infrastructure development, and a variety of gray-zone tactics. These activities are intended to sway local opinion and weaken Taiwan’s control over the islands.
The think tank warned that China may “escalate current lines of effort to erode Taiwan’s sovereignty over its outlying territory of Kinmen in a short-of-war coercion campaign to seize control of the island group in the near term.”
