TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Former US Pacific Command head Dennis Blair recently dismissed predictions that China could be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, arguing that combined Taiwan and US military capabilities will still have the advantage over Beijing.

Blair participated in tabletop exercises hosted by the Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Foundation last week. During an interview, Blair said, "2027 to me is just one date. And as I look at it, that will be a date at which both Taiwanese and American capability will be actually higher relative to PLA capabilities," per CNA. 

Blair, who headed US Pacific Command from 1999 to 2002, said he has visited Taiwan two to three times every five years since retiring and has participated four times as a senior observer in the Han Kuang military exercises. During this visit, he met with Defense Minister Wellington Koo (顧立雄). 

He pointed out that since 2002, the military strength of the PLA has steadily grown, and China has not ruled out using force against Taiwan. This has made it necessary for Taiwan to strengthen its defense capabilities and has also led to increased coordination between the US and Taiwan. 

Blair said he has seen steady improvements in the combat readiness of Taiwan’s military and the joint response capabilities of the US and Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression.

When asked whether a second Trump presidency would affect US engagement in the Indo-Pacific, Blair said the overall US-China rivalry continues to intensify. Many Americans now believe China is determined to push the US out of East Asia, and even the global stage, said Blair. 

This has led to a strong competitive mindset in the US, reflected in policies designed to counter China’s aggression, including under the current Trump administration. He said the US is continuing to strengthen its deterrent posture toward China.

Blair stressed that effective deterrence hinges on convincing China that any attempt at aggression would likely fail. In the context of the Taiwan Strait, this means maintaining a high perceived risk of failure for any Chinese military action. 

The cost of failure, Blair explained, would be enormous for Beijing, not only militarily, but politically. He added that the legitimacy of the CCP is tied to its narrative of “completing unification and ending the civil war.” He said a failed invasion of Taiwan could seriously undermine the party's grip on power. 

Therefore, to maintain effective deterrence, the US and Taiwan must ensure that China sees an invasion as a high-risk endeavor. Washington and Taipei have to continue strengthening military capabilities to reduce the likelihood of war.

As for Taiwan’s ability to resist a Chinese invasion on its own, Blair said Taiwan could hold out for a period but not indefinitely. If no foreign nation came to Taiwan’s aid, China could prevail despite suffering heavy losses. 

However, he believes such a scenario is highly unlikely and said Taiwan should not assume it would be left without support from the US and its allies.

Regarding widespread claims that China will be ready to invade by 2027, Blair pointed to the Pentagon’s annual China Military Power Report, which notes that 2027 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA. Rather than a concrete plan, he views the date more as a “slogan.” 

Blair said the PLA is undergoing comprehensive modernization that is “not specialized for a Taiwan invasion." He asserted that China is pouring resources into nuclear deterrence, space systems, carrier battle groups, and long-range logistics, none of which are solely for an attack on Taiwan.

The former commander concluded that if China truly had a firm deadline for building invasion capabilities, the PLA’s development trajectory would look very different. While the US and Taiwan must closely monitor China’s military buildup, 2027 should not be seen as a decisive moment, said Blair.

He predicted that if by 2027 Taiwan continues developing unmanned vehicles designed to support combat operations on land and in coastal waters and the US keeps advancing hypersonic weapons and other cutting-edge technologies, "the balance in 2027 will still be favorable for the US and Taiwan."