In the absence of a realistic path to unification, Beijing has intensified its use of hybrid warfare to erode Taiwan’s sovereignty from within, seeking to compel the Taiwanese people to “freely” choose unification — removing the US military factor from the equation — through a sustained campaign of political warfare and grey zone actions involving narrative control, election interference, cyberattacks, and transnational repression.
By shaping narratives, interfering in elections, conducting cyberattacks, and engaging in transnational repression, Beijing aims to push for a government willing to accept its conditions, resume “normal” cross-strait relations, and open the way for full diplomatic and economic pressure to marginalize so-called “separatist” tendencies and isolate Taiwan from external support.
Recent developments underscore this strategy’s evolving intensity. In a move reminiscent of tactics used in Hong Kong, the Guangzhou Public Security Bureau issued a “wanted” notice offering rewards for information leading to the apprehension of 20 retired and active members of Taiwan’s Information Communication and Electronic Force Command — labeled “Taiwan independence” forces under a PRC law enforcement framework. Weeks later, reports emerged of a 2024 plot to cause a car crash targeting Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴), raising renewed concerns about physical intimidation as part of the hybrid warfare toolkit.
These incidents illustrate how Beijing’s campaign blends lawfare, intimidation, and information operations into a coherent effort to reshape Taiwan’s political trajectory — an effort that demands a decisive and coordinated response.
China’s goals and methods
In 2003, the PRC introduced the concept of the Three Warfares: public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare. The aim is to shape public opinion, wage psychological and legal battles, sow divisions among opponents, and weaken their will to fight. In Taiwan’s case, the objectives are to intimidate the population, undermine sovereignty, isolate it diplomatically, and establish legal grounds for future action.
The actions pursued by China are varied but share a common goal — breaking Taiwan’s will:
- Cyberattacks: In 2024, Taiwan’s Government Service Network faced an average of 2.4 million daily cyberattacks. These erode trust in democratic institutions, destabilize public confidence, and amplify the psychological pressure created by military threats, often coordinated with PLA drills.
- Air and maritime incursions: Continuous pressure on Taiwan’s military forces also fosters fear among the population.
- Controlling the narrative: Through propaganda, disinformation, and infiltration, Beijing pushes narratives that unification is inevitable and Washington’s commitment is weak — fueling “US skepticism.” These tactics have been used since the first presidential election in 1996, particularly during campaign periods.
- Lawfare: China’s 2005 Anti-Secession Law states that if “Taiwan independence” forces cause secession or peaceful unification becomes impossible, Beijing will resort to “nonpeaceful means.” The CCP alone decides when this threshold is met, creating a legal pretext for invasion and normalizing the threat of war.
Other tools include economic coercion, underwater sabotage, and diplomatic pressure. Together, they apply relentless pressure on Taiwan’s society, government, and institutions, fostering distrust and fragmentation.
China is playing the long game, but the goal is clear: make Taiwan’s current path unsustainable and its resistance futile.
Taiwan’s counter-hybrid strategies
Taiwan’s responses are constrained by limited deterrence capabilities, reduced international recognition, and the risk of escalation. As a result, the government has focused on resilience.
The Ministry of Digital Affairs has reinforced critical infrastructure protection, centralized cybersecurity capabilities under the Information Communication Electronic Force Command, and integrated AI security technologies.
To counter Beijing’s narratives, the Ministry of National Defense shares daily reports on PLA activities near Taiwan, flipping the narrative by exposing adversary actions and highlighting government responses.
Facing trade restrictions and diplomatic pressure, Taiwan has diversified its trade partners while maintaining selective economic ties with China to preserve leverage. Its leadership in advanced semiconductor production reduces dependence without fully severing ties.
Militarily, Taiwan has invested heavily in asymmetric warfare capabilities, enhancing sea denial and expanding its drone fleet.
Over time, these measures have strengthened Taiwan’s resilience and defenses against hybrid threats.
The need for deeper integration
Resilience alone is not enough. To safeguard sovereignty, Taiwan must reinforce its position internationally and work with others to push back against grey zone coercion.
International integration is the common denominator in addressing Taiwan’s security weaknesses. Closer participation in global systems would strengthen information sharing, multilateral cooperation, and joint responses — particularly in cybersecurity. Cooperation with countries such as South Korea, which faces similar threats, could lead to faster and more effective countermeasures.
One growing concern is increased intimidation against Taiwanese leaders overseas, which could deter international engagement. Firm statements and condemnations by both Taiwan and the international community are critical to ensuring officials can safely conduct their work abroad.
Domestically, the government must balance responses to avoid escalation with China and manage public dissatisfaction. By focusing on social and economic resilience, Taiwan can make it harder for Beijing to frame its actions as driven by a separatist fringe.
The risk of political fragmentation remains high. Divisions over the threat assessment and readiness have hindered adoption of a unified resilience strategy. Still, both the government and civil society have launched initiatives such as the Whole-of-Society Resilience program to promote comprehensive national readiness.
Taiwan may be on the front line of hybrid warfare, but it is not powerless. Its democratic institutions, technological advantages, and resilient society offer a strong foundation for resistance. What is needed now is political cohesion, deeper international integration, and a calm but firm posture — proving that pressure will not dictate its future.
