TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission warned that China is rapidly improving its capability to launch a surprise attack on Taiwan while downplaying its war intentions in English-language messaging.
The bipartisan commission submitted its more than 700-page annual report on Tuesday. A subsection titled “Advancing Preparations for a Potential Conflict” says the PLA has stepped up military activity around Taiwan and deployed new amphibious platforms that allow it to shift from routine drills to “an actual blockade or invasion with almost no advance warning.”
The report highlights a “troubling divergence” between China’s English messaging to foreign audiences and its domestic Mandarin propaganda. The authors believe this discrepancy suggests Beijing may be taking preliminary steps to condition its population for war.
It says China downplays invasion intentions internationally while claiming at home that supposed Taiwanese “provocations” could soon justify military action. The report warns that the US and its allies can no longer assume a Taiwan contingency is distant or that they have ample time to prepare.
During a Tuesday morning hearing, Commission Vice Chair Randall Schriver was asked about the possibility of Taiwan joining the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise. Schriver said that the report does not specifically address Taiwan's inclusion.
Schriver said the US has expanded bilateral training with Taiwan, both in Taiwan and through Taiwanese units training in the US. In his personal view, RIMPAC is a large exercise that operates at a “very basic level,” calibrated to the lowest common denominator.
“I would prefer to see more bilateral training and exercises focused on the military challenges Taiwan faces,” he said. He added that this could expand to trilateral or multilateral drills with regional countries likely to be involved in a Taiwan contingency, such as Japan or the Philippines.
For years, the US House has recommended in the National Defense Authorization Act that Taiwan be invited to RIMPAC. The Senate version of the act, passed in October, “strongly encourages” extending the invitation and requires a written justification if Taiwan is excluded.
The report also urges Congress to direct the State Department to work with Taiwan on a Foreign Military Sales case providing support services to bolster US regional deployments and strengthen deterrence around Taiwan. Schriver said this would allow Taiwan to make tangible contributions to a US force posture in the Indo-Pacific.
Schriver said that Taiwan could help fund the construction of Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement sites in northern Luzon, as these facilities are directly tied to deterring China and enhancing the US ability to defend Taiwan.
